538
FXUS64 KMEG 281150
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- EXPECT FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR, WHICH MAY CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICING ON BRIDGES AND
ELEVATED SURFACES ALONGSIDE PATCHES OF BLACK ICE.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY, AND OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TEN DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US, DOWNSTREAM OF
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
MIDSOUTH, THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
THE CASE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
LIKELY CHANCES OF DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A DENSE VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE, MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY SUNRISE AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS OUT. AREAS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A 50 TO
80 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING VISIBILITY OF A HALF MILE OR
LESS TOWARD SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS FROM
THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED CLOUDS NOTWITHSTANDING, THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE THE MILDEST OF THE WEEK, REACHING INTO THE 40S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 AND EXCEEDING FREEZING OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, REGISTERING 521DAM AT 500MB -
A 40DAM NEGATIVE SEASONAL ANOMALY. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BE AIDED BY INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC VORTICITY. GFS
DEPICTS 1.5 PVU (POTENTIAL VORTICITY UNITS) EXTENDING TO 600MB
OVER THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY MORNING, APPROXIMATELY THE LEVEL OF
THE TROPOPAUSE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THOUGH PWAT WILL BE A SCANT
0.25 INCH OR LESS, FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, SUCH A DEEP NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY, WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
CENTER OF THE 1036MB ARCTIC SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DROP THE
WESTERN GULF COAST, BEFORE LIFTING EAST ON MONDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY, AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSITS THE REGION. IN SHORT, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH, PARTICULARLY AROUND MEM AS OF 11Z, WHICH HAS DROPPED TO
MVFR. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FREEZING FOG TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH 13Z-14Z, IMPACTING MKL AS WELL. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE
FOR FREEZING FOG AT TUP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z, WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE VARIABLE,
ATTAINING A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING, THEN
BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BEFORE BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL, BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
RETURN VERY DRY AND BITTER COLD AIR TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ027-
028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MSZ001>016-020-021.
TN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ003-
004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JAB
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