460
FXUS64 KMEG 282317
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. FREEZING FOG MAY CREATE A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IN ADDITION TO BLACK
ICE FROM REFREEZING ICE MELT, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE OVERNIGHT TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN OVER MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY, AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING AFTER EARLY MORNING FREEZING
FOG WITH LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
NORTH OF I-40, AND 30S SOUTH.
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I- 40. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITIES FOR ONE-
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT. GIVEN THE
PROBABILITIES, A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MELT
SOME OF THE RESIDUAL SLEET AND SNOW THAT REMAINS ON MANY ROADS.
BLACK ICE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ON MANY UNTREATED ROADS
AS MELTED SNOW AND SLEET REFREEZES AT NIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SMALL
POTENTIAL EXISTS (< 20% CHANCE) FOR A SNOW SHOWER TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WITH ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINING MINOR AT BEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER
INCH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS
WEEKEND BUT LOW FOR ANY SNOW SHOWER ACCUMULATIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO TEENS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COMBINATION OF THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR WIND
CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER WATCH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
LONG-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NEARLY ZONAL MID-
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
VISIBILITIES DEGRADING TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. LINGERING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH AREAS OF
EARLY MORNING FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL RETURN VERY DRY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS
WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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