177
FXUS64 KMEG 142340
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
540 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE HALF TO 2 INCH RANGE,
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP DENOTES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MONROE COUNTY
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, IS MOVING NORTHEAST, GIVING LIFT TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS. AS WE PIVOT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE (40-
60%), AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND A DECENT SWATH OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION.
AROUND SUNSET WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (80-100%) WILL BECOME THE STORY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW,
CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, MOVES OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LOW LATE
TONIGHT AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE PINCHED OFF
THIS FAR NORTH. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE UP TO
200 J/KG OF SBCAPE, MAINLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION
INDICATING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY AFTER SUNSET AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION SWATH WILL MOVE
OVER THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO
INTERACT WITH A SURGE OF PWATS, UP TO 1.5", NEARING THE MAXIMUM
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONE THING TO NOTE, THE GREATEST FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS (UP TO 2") WILL FALL OVER THE SAME AREA THAT GOT
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS A LITTLE OVER 2 WEEKS AGO. AS SUCH,
THIS IS THE AREA THAT SAW THE MOST SNOWMELT AND IN TURN, THE
REGION WHERE SOILS ARE MOST SATURATED. THOUGH 2" OF RAINFALL DOES
NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH, MOST PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK TO FALL OVER A
6-8 HOUR TIME PERIOD. A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT.
COME MID-DAY SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ON THE SCALE OF 6-8 MB.
IF THIS FORECAST MATERIALIZES, WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH, MAINLY IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LOW PUSH
EAST, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
PRETTY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
BY MONDAY MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 70S
BY TUESDAY. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE MID 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS PERSISTENT RIDGING, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECT VERY WARM AIR IN. AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S THURSDAY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING. THE END OF
THE WEEK DOES LOOK A LITTLE "COOLER" AS A COLD FRONT AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WE'RE A
LITTLE TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO IRON OUT THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS
LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THOSE LOOKING FOR WINTER TO RETURN, WILL LIKELY
BE WAITING A DECENT WHILE AS THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE
CPC HAS US HIGHLIGHTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE (AROUND 30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE SUNRISE.
EXPECT NORTH WINDS TOMORROW BEFORE MIDDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW AROUND 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WETTING RAINFALL RETURNS TODAY INCREASING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 50% TOMORROW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL TOP
OUT AT AROUND 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
20 FT WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
BACK OVER THE MID-SOUTH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORKWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
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