498
FXUS64 KMEG 151808
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEEK WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A GLOOMY DAY IS ON DISPLAY AT THIS HOUR AS A SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A STRATUS SHIELD
AND SHOWER BANDS ARE CURRENTLY ROTATING EAST AROUND THIS LOW. DRY
AIR, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS LOW, AIDING IN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING PRETTY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CAN BE QUANTIFIED PRETTY WELL NORTH AND
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH AROUND 1.5-2.5" NORTH AND 0.10-0.5" SOUTH. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS EAST, PAST OUR AREA, SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ALONG WITH IT BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 35 MPH, THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND
LINGERING MIST, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY UNDER PERFORM TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOW 60S.
BY THIS EVENING, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN, DECREASING WINDS
AND FILTERING IN DRY, WARMER AIR. IN THIS TRANSITION, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION ALONG ALREADY SATURATED SURFACES WILL CREATE A
SUSCEPTIBLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE, WHERE MOST OF OUR RAINFALL OCCURRED.
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE UPPER PLAINS. AS SUCH, A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
THE LOW 70S. THIS WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS AND BROADENS OVER
THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS,
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AID IN WARMING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING BY MID-WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER.
THURSDAY EVENING, THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
FEW POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS TO MATERIALIZE AS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL GIVE LIFT TO OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WET
WEEKEND IS ON THE HORIZON AS WELL AS A FEW SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS WE ARE STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO IRON OUT
THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, DETERMINISTIC (GFS
AND ECMWF) FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DISPLAYING A DECENT SWATH OF
MUCAPE >500 J/KG AND DECENT HIGH FALLS SATURDAY. FOR NOW,
HOWEVER, JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
RAIN AND LOW (IFR) CIGS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AIRSPACE. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT OF THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TO MVFR. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT TEMPO INCLUSION AT JBR NEAR SUNRISE
TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SCT BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 15Z.
AS FOR WINDS, GUSTY (15 TO 25 KTS) WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS JBR,
MEM, AND MKL WITH CALMER WINDS NEAR TUP WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY PASSING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIP BACK BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, BECOMING
S/SE AROUND 5 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, AIDED BY RECENT WETTING RAINFALL. 20FT WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED TODAY AS WE SIT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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