934
FXUS64 KMEG 152335
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEEK WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A GLOOMY DAY IS ON DISPLAY AT THIS HOUR AS A SURFACE LOW IS
CURRENTLY CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A STRATUS SHIELD
AND SHOWER BANDS ARE CURRENTLY ROTATING EAST AROUND THIS LOW. DRY
AIR, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS LOW, AIDING IN SHOWERS
DIMINISHING PRETTY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CAN BE QUANTIFIED PRETTY WELL NORTH AND
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH AROUND 1.5-2.5" NORTH AND 0.10-0.5" SOUTH. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS EAST, PAST OUR AREA, SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ALONG WITH IT BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 35 MPH, THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND
LINGERING MIST, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY UNDER PERFORM TODAY WITH
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH SEEING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE LOW 60S.
BY THIS EVENING, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN, DECREASING WINDS
AND FILTERING IN DRY, WARMER AIR. IN THIS TRANSITION, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION ALONG ALREADY SATURATED SURFACES WILL CREATE A
SUSCEPTIBLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE, WHERE MOST OF OUR RAINFALL OCCURRED.
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE UPPER PLAINS. AS SUCH, A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
THE LOW 70S. THIS WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS AND BROADENS OVER
THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS,
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AID IN WARMING. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING BY MID-WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER.
THURSDAY EVENING, THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
FEW POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LOOKS TO MATERIALIZE AS
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL GIVE LIFT TO OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WET
WEEKEND IS ON THE HORIZON AS WELL AS A FEW SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
EJECT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS WE ARE STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO IRON OUT
THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, DETERMINISTIC (GFS
AND ECMWF) FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DISPLAYING A DECENT SWATH OF
MUCAPE >500 J/KG AND DECENT HIGH FALLS SATURDAY. FOR NOW,
HOWEVER, JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH WHILE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM ALL FOUR TERMINALS. IN THE MEANTIME, IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JBR, WHICH HAS SEEN CIGS
ERODE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME CONTINUED EROSION OF THE STRATUS
DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE, BUT
INCREASINGLY EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO HALT
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF VFR. THEREFORE, MEM/MKL/TUP ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE AROUND MKL BETWEEN 10Z - 14Z.
GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN AMPLE CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THAT WETTING RAINS HAVE JUST FALLEN, FOG POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT JBR. NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS 1 MI OR LESS OF VISIBILITY BETWEEN 10Z - 13Z
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THAT COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH SUNRISE. DEBATED ON
INCLUDING 1/2 MI FG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTIONABLE FG IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL
REEVALUATE AT 06Z.
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 18Z, WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, AIDED BY RECENT WETTING RAINFALL. 20FT WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED TODAY AS WE SIT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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