556
FXUS64 KMEG 160503
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1103 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AFTER MIDWEEK WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
IS NUDGING ITS WAY EAST, DESPITE A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
850 TO 700MB FLOW NOTED ON THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z SOUNDING.
JONESBORO, AR AND MEMPHIS HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT AND IT APPEARS
JACKSON, TN WILL FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED, GENERALLY 8-12KTS EAST OF THE RIVER. CLEARING SKIES,
ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
SUGGEST THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT NBM GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS THE HRRR KEEP IT CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. NBM
INDICATES LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE.
WE WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE SHIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. MUCH
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
77 DEGREES WOULD TIE THE RECORDS AT MEMPHIS AND JACKSON, TN AND
79 DEGREES WOULD BREAK THE RECORD BY 2 DEGREES AT TUPELO.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AND REACH THEIR
PEAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY (40%
CHANCE) THURSDAY.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
A SECONDARY TROUGH AND 993MB SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCE OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME, BUT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH 350 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM SRH NEAR 200 M^2/S^2 SO A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SEVERE). A COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S TO MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY AND LOWER ANY THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS SHOWERY WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH AND HAS MADE IT
FURTHER INTO WEST TENNESSEE THAN EXPECTED IN THE 00Z TAFS. DUE TO
THIS, MEM HAS CLEARED TO VFR WITH THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ONLY A
HANDFUL OF MILES NORTHWEST OF MKL. SOME BACK-BUILDING OF STRATUS
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND COULD SLOW THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION
OF VFR INTO MKL. TUP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 15Z
TOMORROW.
IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED A TRANSITION TO VFR, SOMEWHAT
OPTIMAL FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS, THE
FOG THREAT MAY BE UNDERDONE, ESPECIALLY AT MEM. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
FLIPPED TOWARDS THIS FORECAST, SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM MORNING, BUT ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO OTHER MODELS HAS PREVENTED ANY MENTION OF FG.
THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR 2 SM AT MEM AND
MAINTAIN THE 1 SM AT JBR FROM 10Z - 13Z.
ANY CIG/VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR
AFTER 15Z AS THE STRATUS DECK ERODES. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, AIDED BY RECENT WETTING RAINFALL. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JAB
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