492
FXUS64 KMEG 162343
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S AND POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING, WE'RE LOOKING AT A BENIGN
WEATHER DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERPERFORM INITIAL NBM
GUIDANCE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND CLEAR SKIES HELP AID IN DAYTIME
HEATING. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY.
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS DECENT SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AS A MID-
LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP. DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40. WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AIDED BY A DECENT SWATH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS FILTERING IN WARMER AIR, AND
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. A FEW AREAS OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. IT WILL FEEL LIKE
SPRING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES (25-40%) WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TAPPING INTO PRESENT MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY STATE LINE AHEAD MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
WILL PRECEDE A PATTERN SHIFT THURSDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND
A COLOCATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD (50-70%) IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY EVENING. ONE FINAL THING TO NOTE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ELEVATING SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED AS THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS
~30% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.
EARLY FRIDAY, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OUT AHEAD
OF IT. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT BOTH
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE CAPE FIELD WILL BE SLIM TO
NONE. LREF GUIDANCE HAS <30% CHANCE OF >250 J/KG OF SBCAPE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTTOM LINE, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE SUFFICIENT SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AS WE REMAIN CAPPED. THIS COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE PAST OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES (35-50%) DO CONTINUE AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO EJECT FROM THE PLAINS. BOTTOM LINE, WE'RE LOOKING AT A WET END
TO THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO QUICKLY RETURN
AFTER THIS NEXT SYSTEM BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, DIMINISHING SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL NIGHT EXPECTED FOR AVIATION ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. BY AROUND 06Z, SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A LARGE
SWATH OF IMPACTFUL BR OR FG THAT WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE COVERAGE OF ANY
IMPACTS. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED 4 SM - 3 SM AT MEM/MKL/JBR FOR NOW
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR A 03Z AMENDMENT. ALONGSIDE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, THE SAME GUIDANCE HAS IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 06Z, BUT FOR THE SAME REASONS AS THE
VISIBILITY IMPACTS, HAVE OPTED TO NOT BRING PREVAILING IFR. ANY
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z, WHERE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL SITES. THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONGSIDE VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY AROUND OR ABOVE 50%. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
IN. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL RETURNS LATE THURSDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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