588
FXUS64 KMEG 170512
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S AND POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND, EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 DEGREES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NBM SHOWS LESS THAN
A 25% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO DETERMINE IF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. POTENTIALLY RECORD SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY, WHEN MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MAY EVEN APPROACH 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE TUP WOULD SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
78 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD BY 1 DEGREE.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE THE RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
HIGHER WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR THURSDAY, BUT THE NBM
LOWERS THE CHANCE OF 40+ MPH GUSTS TO 35-45%. NEVERTHELESS,
EXPECT A WINDY PERIOD STARTING LATE TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 995MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY THURSDAY PLACING
ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. WE MAY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS (<20% CHANCE) IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BEFORE NOON THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE (UP TO
20-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CAPE MAY REACH 450 J/KG
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-3 SRH UP TO 230 M^2/S^2. ANY
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL (<10%) DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WELL
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT BY 3-6 HOURS,
BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY.
WE WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
JDS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WHILE ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AS OF 0430Z AT THE
TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION, AN LIFR/IFR STRATUS DECK HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS STREAMING NORTHWARD. IMPACTS FROM THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH MEM AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY TO JBR/MKL/TUP THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONGSIDE
IMPACTS FROM CIGS, SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
BEEN SHOWING AREAS OF FOG UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS. WHILE NO LARGE-
SCALE, CONSISTENT DROPS TO 1/2SM OR LOWER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED,
MANY STATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAVE PREVAILED 3SM -
4SM. THEREFORE, HAVE CONFINED ANY MENTION OF IFR AND/OR LIFR
VISIBILITIES TO TEMPO GROUPS FROM 09Z - 13Z WHILE GENERALLY
PREVAILING 3SM - 4SM.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE STRATUS SHIELD, WHICH SHOULD OCCUPY ALL FOUR
TERMINALS, WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE OWING TO SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
ALOFT. THEREFORE, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE VFR RETURNS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
THE SOUTH, PREVAILING BETWEEN 12 KTS - 15 KTS, GUSTING ABOVE
20 KTS. THESE WINDS MAY ABATE SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z, BUT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY AROUND OR ABOVE
50%. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS (40-50% RH) IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL TREND HIGHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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