043
FXUS64 KMEG 171148 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S AND POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND, EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 DEGREES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NBM SHOWS LESS THAN
A 25% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO DETERMINE IF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. POTENTIALLY RECORD SETTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY, WHEN MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MAY EVEN APPROACH 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE TUP WOULD SET A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
78 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD BY 1 DEGREE.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE THE RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR
HIGHER WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR THURSDAY, BUT THE NBM
LOWERS THE CHANCE OF 40+ MPH GUSTS TO 35-45%. NEVERTHELESS,
EXPECT A WINDY PERIOD STARTING LATE TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD RIDGE WILL SHIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 995MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY THURSDAY PLACING
ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. WE MAY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS (<20% CHANCE) IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BEFORE NOON THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE (UP TO
20-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE CAPE MAY REACH 450 J/KG
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-3 SRH UP TO 230 M^2/S^2. ANY
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL (<10%) DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WELL
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT BY 3-6 HOURS,
BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY.
WE WILL BE A BIT COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
JDS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENTS,
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS WIDE WITH RESPECT TO CIG BASES THROUGH
THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE 12Z TAFS FORECAST A TRANSITION TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID/LATE MORNING TO REFLECT DEEPENING OF THE DIURNAL
MIXING LAYER. THIS MVFR DECK MAY SCATTER OUT BY MID-AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOSING UP THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED HOWEVER.
EXPECT A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z, WITH
FL020 WINDS NEARING 50KT AT MEM AND JBR. DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCES
WITH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN 20 DEGREES, LIMITING LLWS
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY AROUND OR ABOVE
50%. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS (40-50% RH) IS EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL TREND HIGHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB
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