276
FXUS64 KMEG 172341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
541 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND
NIGHT.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EXPANSIVE 1027MB HIGH OVER
THE SE WITH A PAIR OF SUB-988MB LOWS TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 25 MPH AND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NE ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NW
TENNESSEE EACH DAY AND NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF
THESE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY
AND NIGHT AS A STRONG WAA REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.
ESAT GUIDANCE FROM BOTH ECMWF AND NAEFS HAS MAXED-OUT 700MB
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES AT EACH
STANDARD LEVEL FROM 1000MB UP TO 500MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO OCCUR.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLORADO LOW WILL EJECT IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG. LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
JOINT PROBABILITIES (30% OR LESS) OF MLCAPE >500 J/KG, MLCIN < -
25 J/KG, AND BULK SHEAR > 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, QPF
PROBABILITIES > 0.10 INCHES ARE ONLY PINGING 20 TO 40 PERCENT AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
WETTING RAINFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS,
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AS DOES THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT BECOMES ENHANCED IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-60%) OF SEEING
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE (>70%) EXISTS IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
MINNESOTA MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (30-50%) IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LLWS 40-50 KTS
IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, ENDING AROUND 10-12Z. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT MKL AND TUP, LIFTING TO BORDERLINE
VFR TOMORROW EVENING AT MEM. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO JBR AFTER
20Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL APPROACH JBR AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE, OR LIKELY SHORTLY THEREAFTER, AND AT MEM AROUND 1-2Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY AROUND
OR ABOVE 50%. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE STRONG THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL
RETURNS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS
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