754
FXUS64 KMEG 192315
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
515 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE) OF A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
- BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
A WARMUP TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 994MB LOW OVER KANSAS CITY,
MO AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE
TIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH AN 8MB GRADIENT ANALYZED FROM
CLAY COUNTY, AR TO MONROE COUNTY, MS. SEVERAL WIND GUSTS OVER
30 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH 6PM. THE LATEST GOES EAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHICH IS ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOW TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS.
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS NE ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NW TENNESSEE
CHARACTERIZED BY 1800 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT 850MB, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FUEL STORED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION
STILL REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE HREF SHOWS MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS EVENING, EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS, IF ANY STORMS DO GET GOING AND ARE NOT COMPLETELY
SHEARED APART BY THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, A COUPLE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AS MID AND UPPER LAPSE RATES ARE
MODERATELY STEEP AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
BE VERY LOW, AS THE WIND PROFILE IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
SURFACE LOW IS REMOVED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WE COLLABORATED
WITH SPC THIS MORNING ON A MARGINAL RISK (5% PROBABILITY) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE ALONG AND NE
OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO JACKSON, TN. THE TIMING OF STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM 6PM THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY MORNING ENDING RAIN CHANCES AND FILTERING IN DRIER AIR.
THE FRONT WILL STALL DOWN NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POCKETS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIFT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OVER THE MAJORITY
OF NORTH MS ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE
>200 J/KG, BULK SHEAR > 30 KNOTS, AND MUCIN < -25 J/KG ARE ONLY
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SUGGESTING THAT THIS OUTLOOK IS
LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE TRIMMED TO THE SOUTH.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO COLLABORATE WITH SPC OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE TO TRIM THE THREAT TO THE SOUTH. NONETHELESS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH UP TO THE I-
40 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND DELIVER A SHOT OF COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH LOWS FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
MIDWEEK AS THE POLAR JET DIVES BACK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (30% OR LESS) IN
RAIN NEAR THE MEM TERMINAL THIS EVENING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
AT MKL (~50% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS WIND AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS WILL
VEER THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THIS EVENING BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND 5-10 KTS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WETTING RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LARGELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. DRY AND COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING
TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS
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