732
FXUS64 KMEG 211202 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
602 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- BOUTS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WITH A WARMUP STARTING MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (30 PERCENT OR MORE) WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WAA SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH AS OF 9PM DUE TO A STALLED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. DUE TO VERY DRY AIR FROM LAST NIGHT'S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND VERY LIGHTLY OR IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. WE WILL SEE A
BIT OF AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARDS.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT THE EARLIEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT AT THE LATEST AFTER SUNDOWN. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH RESULTING IN COOLER, CANADIAN AIR TO SINK SOUTH.
SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO BE ROUGHLY 10-
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ELEVATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE CAA
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK AND SHIFT EAST. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 28F FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. WHILE MONDAY
MORNING WILL FEEL COLDER THAN WHAT IT IS, DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW,
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PRIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AREAS DROP TO THE LOW TEENS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THANKFULLY, THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO RETURN FLOW
QUICKLY SETTLING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ADVECTING WARMER AIR BACK
TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WHICH WILL BE 10+ DEGREES NORMAL
FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY
OF THIS LOW, THE MID-SOUTH COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF REMINDER OF WINTER
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE METEOROLOGICAL SPRING IS WELCOMED NEXT
WEEKEND.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIGS WILL DROP AREAWIDE THROUGH 18Z, IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. VFR WILL PREVAIL, BUT TUP WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH
MVFR (60 PERCENT CHANCE) AND A FEW -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RETURN WIND GUST POTENTIAL
UNDER CLEARING SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WETTING
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DRY AND
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE IN TANDEM MIDWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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