263
FXUS64 KMEG 051750
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, PLACING
THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RECORD-
BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EMERGE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AS A
LINE OF STORMS FORMS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HOUSE SBCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG
AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS. THESE PARAMETERS WILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ALLOW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD,
ORIENTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME, A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHERN US/CA BORDER. CSU-MLP IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP
ON A SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THESE FEATURES IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH,
MAINLY BETWEEN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER EVENTUALLY
DRAWS A RISK AREA FOR THE MID-SOUTH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
UNTIL THEN, EXPECT A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH RAIN TOTALS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
AIRSPACE, WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A MVFR CIG DECK
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CIGS LIKELY
DROPPING AT TUP BY 15Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME. SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT S WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS ACROSS
JBR/MEM/MKL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST ABOVE 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, BUT DAILY WETTING
RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER AT BAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA
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