977
FXUS64 KMEG 060523
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. A MILD NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
A MILD AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE (>70%) FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (<10% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FAVORABLE CURVATURE
IN THE HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT 0-3 AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES INDICATE THE RISK OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN LINE
SEGMENTS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES (99TH
PERCENTILE FOR MARCH).
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
AREAS MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE
REGION. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A CUTOFF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BEING PICKED UP BY A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LREF
ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40.
UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE CUTOFF UPPER-
LEVEL LOW BEING REABSORBED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW AND THE QUALITY
OF THE PARAMETER SPACE THIS FAR OUT. NONETHELESS, THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CLIMATE
CLIMATE RECORDS - HIGH/HIGH MIN
3/6/26
MEM 81 2022
66 2022
MKL 80 2022
67 2022
JBR 76 2022
66 2022
TUP 85 2022
63 2022
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A MVFR
DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AROUND SUNRISE, IMPACTING
JBR/MEM/TUP. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, BEGINNING
AROUND MID-MORNING, AND REMAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. A SECONDARY MVFR DECK LOOKS TO IMPACT MEM
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
AIRSPACE SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THEY DO LOOK TO STAY WEST OF
MEM PRIOR TO 12Z.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST ABOVE 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, BUT DAILY WETTING
RAIN CHANCES WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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