915
FXUS64 KMEG 070442
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1042 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE LATEST NQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHWEST MISSISSPPI FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION WITH LIFT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION, A WEAK SHORTWAVE, AND A LOW-LEVEL JET.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, PRECEDING A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENTLY ORIENTED JUST
WEST OF ARKANSAS, WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE MID-SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE, AIDED BY THIS COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT SEVERE PARAMETERS
AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS, FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 700-1200 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 30 KTS, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM.
THOUGH THE PARAMETER SPACE IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR A SLAM DUNK SEVERE
WEATHER DAY, INSTABILITY WILL BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT TOMORROW AS 0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 200 M2/S2 AND MLCAPE VALUES >500 J/KG.
CAMS OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS OR SO HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED, THEREFORE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE AS WE MOVE INTO MID-MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT ALL DAY AS THE SEVERE
PARAMETER SPACE INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THIS LINE OF
STORMS MOVES SOUTHWEST.
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.7",
NEARING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
LATEST CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TRAINING STORMS WILL MOVE
MAINLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION AND EXTEND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA ARE UPWARD OF 3". NUISANCE FLOODING AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAMS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN, WARRANTING POTENTIAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH PAST OUR AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
DRYING US OUT AND LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. A BIT OF RELIEF AFTER THE PAST SEVERAL RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND A FEW SHORTWAVES INCREASE OUR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY,
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY A
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT FROM THIS REGION BRINGING DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER GOES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THIS UPPER-LOW LEADING TO SEVERE WEATHER STAYING JUST SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN ORIENTATION RESULTING IN SEVERE WEATHER
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOLER
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE TO
THE 12Z CAM CONSENSUS, THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL TIMING OF A BKN/SLD LINE OF TSRA. THE 00Z TAFS TIMING ARE
A BLEND OF THE SLOWER HRRR GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS TAFS,
MAINTAINING A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND GUST AND VIS IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE PASSAGE. THIS WINDOW MAY BE NARROWED
PENDING 00Z CAM GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
TRAILING TS IN BEHIND THE LINE ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE
LESS IMPACTFUL THAN THE PRIMARY LINE OF TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, AIDED BY A COLD FRONT. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page