072
FXUS64 KMEG 072351 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNSET. THE ORIGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN
EXPANDED IN TIME AND AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH MS THROUGH
5 PM CST. THE PARAMETER SPACE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS LINE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS.
THE SHEAR IS ADMITTEDLY WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS THE LINE APPROACHES. FORTUNATELY, THE 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR IS NOW ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LINE OF STORMS,
SUGGESTING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SPIN-UPS IS LOW,
UNLESS SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BECOME REORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGY
MAXIMUM FOR EARLY MARCH) WITH A CORRIDOR OF 1.5-1.7" EXTENDING
FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION TO SOUTHWEST TN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST POPS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. WE MAY EVEN SEE THUNDER PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE-TUPELO LINE.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF
LOW SPINS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH TODAY WILL BECOME MORE QUASI-ZONAL AS A
POLAR BRANCH TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
NORTHERN WINDS AND DRIER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH MS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END BY THE AFTERNOON.
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT.
WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY
MONDAY, CONCURRENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE
PRESENCE OF THIS JET WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE MS DELTA
COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MIDWEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW OPENS UP AND PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH, DIGGING A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, APPROACHING
RECORD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES,
STRONG KINEMATICS, AND ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME,
PROBABILITIES FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON TUESDAY AND
PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY
THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S, BUT WE'LL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW AREAS, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST TN AND INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS,
BUT WE'RE CURRENTLY NOT LOOKING AT A FREEZE. THE NBM PROBABILITY
FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 10-15 % FOR AREAS AROUND
PARIS, UNION CITY, AND JACKSON IN TN. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLDER AIR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK, BUT IT'S A BIT TOO FAR
OUT FOR DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS ONSET TIMING OF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR TO NORTH OF JBR. MVFR CIGS WERE
MOST PREVALENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT MIDSOUTH TAF SITES FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE EVENING, WARM SECTOR MVFR CIG TIMING WILL BE MORE OF A
CHALLENGE. EXPECT AREAL EXPANSION OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA AND
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LIMITED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND
MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS WEEK, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
END BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING MONDAY, INCREASING TO 10-
15 MPH THROUGH MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...PWB
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