141
FXUS64 KMEG 080501
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1101 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
SUNRISE, ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MIDDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE ON MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE MID-SOUTH. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL USHER IN A PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
THE MID-SOUTH. IN ADDITION, MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THESE PARAMETERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERLAP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT AN OVERALL LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS. SHOULD A STORM POP AT THIS
TIME, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW WILL QUICKLY CLOSE AFTER SUNSET ON
MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EJECTS OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AS THIS FEATURE TREKS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, IT WILL BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND PHASE WITH A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KICK OFF OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH.
THESE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER SET UP CONSISTING OF
MODEST KINEMATICS AND LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY. REMNANTS OF
TUESDAY'S STORMS WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
AS OF NOW, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE
CONTAINING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY
CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
DRY.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
LOW MVFR / HIGH IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY -DZ
AND SHRA WILL REINFORCE THE MOIST NOCTURNAL INVERSION, AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST PAST 12Z AT TUP. EXPECT GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR ON SUNDAY, AIDED BY SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST DRYING OF THE
MIXED LAYER.
TUP TAF WILL CARRY AN AMD NOT SKED DUE TO MISSING VIS, WIND AND
ALTM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND
MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS WEEK, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINRH ABOVE 40%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page