111
FXUS64 KMEG 081810
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS
LINGERING SHOWERS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND
70S.
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES) AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, INCLUDING A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (70-100%) IN STRONG, POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS
ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER LOW-END SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 999MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PENNSYLVANIA BACK THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GOES EAST REVEALS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, A WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND WEST TENNESSEE.
TO THE SOUTH, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT BACK
NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND MLCAPE VALUES
WILL PEAK BACK UP INTO THE 750 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. KINEMATICS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ABOVE 3KM,
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TOP OUT AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH HREF PROBABILITIES OF
7.5 C/KM PEAKING AROUND 80-90%. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 TO 8 HOUR
WINDOW WHERE ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL OVERLAP, AND ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE UP WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AND ELEVATED, LEADING
TO A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. APPROPRIATELY, THE SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) EXTENDING NORTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR. A CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP (CIG1) WAS INTRODUCED
FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT,
ALTHOUGH HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE AT LEAST
SCATTERED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING,
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND SLOWLY EJECTS FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS CITY. TUESDAY'S NBM
SUSTAINED 20 MPH WIND OR HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE PINGING IN THE
70 TO 100% RANGE FOR TUESDAY, INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED
ON TUESDAY AS STRONG AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE
DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD TRIGGER A FEW ELEVATED STORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIMESCALE, BUT A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST HAS A LOT OF MOVING PARTS, LEADING TO
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SETUP
FEATURES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEFORE THAT OCCURS, THERE IS A SMALL SHORTWAVE THAT MAY EJECT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY AND CONTAMINATE THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS, LREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE A LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR
EVENT. GUIDANCE PLACES THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY LESS THAN 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH 60 TO 70 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, BUT
CAPE PROFILES REMAIN TALL AND SKINNY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK (15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS)
OVER THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH, BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE
THREAT MAY BE LOWER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SKIES ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
TERMINAL WITH KJBR REPORTING CLEAR SKIES AS OF 17Z. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL BY 22Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN AFTER 00Z
AND RETURN OF LOW STRATUS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT MEM AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS EARLY AS 19Z TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO 21Z AND AFTER AT MEM.
AMD NOT SKED IN THE TUP TAF DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND
MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS WEEK, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
OCCUR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINRH ABOVE 40%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM
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