411
FXUS64 KMEG 110001 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A STRONG
TORNADO TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
- AN ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, DUE
TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
TRAINING STORMS.
- FOLLOWING DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH AS 80%.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ENCOMPASS THE MID-SOUTH.
WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE REGION, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW.
THE LATEST GOES EAST LOWER WATER IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEP UPPER LOW
CHURNING OVER NW MEXICO WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE ID/WY BORDER
DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED FROM NORTHERN MAINE WSW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ATTENDANT
TO A 1002MB LOW. A DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN AND POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, A WEAK DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT FROM THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SETTING UP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, CHARACTERIZED
BY 1800 TO 2200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE LIMITING FACTOR EARLY ON WILL
BE BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. IF STORMS
CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER, THE KINEMATICS WILL BECOME
GREATLY ENHANCED DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. SEVERAL HI-RES
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOOPED HODOGRAPHS, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND HIGH
AMOUNTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LOW, THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OF TWO TO
FORM BETWEEN 10PM AND 2AM. THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK COVERS THIS
WELL WITH A 2% CHANCE OF A TORNADO, WITH A CIG1 FOR EF-2 STRENGTH
IF THEY FORM. ADDITIONALLY, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS THAT FORM. THE THREAT WILL
WANE AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST FEATURES LOWER THAN EXPECTED CONFIDENCE DUE
TO SEVERAL MOVING PARTS IN PLAY. A LARGE OPEN TROUGH OVER TEXAS
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ARRIVE IN THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BOTH HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION.
IN THIS SCENARIO, THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH. NONETHELESS, A
HIGH SHEAR AND MAINLY LOW INSTABILITY EVENT WILL UNFOLD. THE MAIN
STORM MODE WILL BE INITIALLY MULTI-CELLULAR, BUT IN TIME WILL
TRANSITION TO A BROKEN QLCS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS, WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
A FEW DISCRETE CELLS COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, AND
POSE AN ALL HAZARDS THREAT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, DUE TO THE MEDIUM POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
AREA IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FLOODING THREAT IS
ELEVATED AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND
LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANK FULL. THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF STORMS EARLY ON BEFORE THE
MAIN LINE ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG POLAR FRONT SWEEPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH LREF PROBABILITIES AS HIGH AS 80% ON
TUESDAY MORNING.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TSRA TIMING NEAR JBR THIS EVENING. THE LAST
FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE DEPICTED LESS COVERAGE OF TSRA NEAR JBR AFTER
03Z, BUT THE MODEL HAS MISSED OBSERVED TSRA SOUTHEAST OF LIT TO
NEAR SGT IN EASTERN AR PRIOR TO 00Z 12Z LZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING
WAS NOT AVAILABLE, BUT MEM ACARS SOUNDING AT 2130Z SHOWED A
MODEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML). THIS EML LIKELY HAS LIMITED
BUT NOT PRECLUDED TSRA OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
POST-SUNSET, EXPECT TSRA CHANCES TO DECREASE AT TUP AND MKL AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TO THE WEST, A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET (FL020 WINDS INCREASING TO 45KT) WILL COMBINE WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK OF TSRA
POTENTIAL AT JBR BY AFTER 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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