332
FXUS64 KMEG 110531
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO START THIS MORNING AND
WILL LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AN ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, DUE
TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW AND WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK
ALONGSIDE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. ALOFT, A CUTOFF LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, IS FINALLY EJECTING EAST INTO TX AND THE
GULF TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO TX. THE UPPER
SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORMS
AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL REACH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A RELATIVELY STOUT EML HAS KEPT STORMS AT BAY THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED, SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. THEREFORE, THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION
FREE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING,
THE EML THAT HAS KEPT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WILL LIFT AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH
MUCAPE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, MUCIN/MLCIN WILL DECREASE
IN TANDEM. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN TO APPEAR EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. THE FRONT, IN THE MEANTIME, WILL HAVE TRAVERSED TOWARDS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE CAM
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT AMONGST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS
WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW, HAVE THE
LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS 7 AM.
MEANWHILE, OTHERS HAVE A MORE BROKEN LINE THAT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE MORNING. IF THE LINE ARRIVES EARLIER, CAPE WILL HAVE LITTLE
TO NO TIME TO BUILD, BEING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IF THE LINE ARRIVES LATER, MUCH MORE OF THE REGION WILL BE
ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING, BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ABOVE
40 KNOTS AS THE STORMS ARRIVE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. SO, STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY IN AREAS THAT ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL RISK INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD POOL BEHIND WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. IN THIS SCENARIO, AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE. IF THE LINE REMAINS
FURTHER WEST THAN THESE AREAS, ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY EXPERIENCE THIS UPTICK AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW THAT PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN, WITH SMALL, WEAK HODOGRAPH CURVATURE BELOW 3 KM.
THEREFORE, A WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
RISK IF THE COLD POOL SETTLES FURTHER WEST, ALLOWING FOR BOTH
LOCALLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ROOM ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO
OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE SPC CURRENTLY
HAS A CIG1 TORNADO RISK.
ONE LAST RISK WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WHICH HAVE EXPERIENCED FLOODING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PWATS WILL BE IN THE 99TH+ PERCENTILE RANGE AT 1.50" - 1.75". AS
THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON, OBLIQUE 850 - 700 MB
MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CAPE WILL
PROMOTE TRAINING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. IF THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO ESCAPE SOUTH AND
EAST FAST ENOUGH, TRAINING POTENTIAL MAY BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTH
ENOUGH TO AVOID AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINS.
THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED THROUGH
FRIDAY. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
SOUTHERLIES RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
RELATIVELY POOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A
MINIMUM. THEREFORE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
ANOTHER PATTERN FLIP SEEMS LIKELY BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFIES, PROMOTING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE ONE TODAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING CURRENTLY MAX OUT TUESDAY MORNING
ABOVE 70% THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY, WARMING FURTHER THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
RELATIVE TO EARLIER GUIDANCE, 00Z CAM CONSENSUS AND RECENT HRRR
RUNS DEPICT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PRE-FRONTAL TSRA WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR JBR, MEM AND MKL. THIS APPEARS TO BE CORROBORATED BY
THE OBSERVED PROGRESS OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE OVER EASTERN OK
AT 06Z.
ONCE THE INITIAL TSRA LINE LIFTS THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS, ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
TSRA TIMING HASN'T CHANGED AS MUCH FOR TUP, WITH TSRA LIKELY MORE
CO-LOCATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TIMING, TSRA AROUND TUP WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND SHEAR AND INTENSE RAIN CORES, RELATIVE TO
THE OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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