827
FXUS64 KMEG 261137
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A MILD NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE TO ABOUT 585 DAM, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (AROUND 80%) THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
NE AR AND MO BOOTHEEL. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL THREATEN RECORDS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS TRENDING A
BIT SLOWER, SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF I-
40 WITH SOME LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH MS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
TN/MS BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT NORTH MS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LACK UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. AREAS ALONG THE KY/MO BORDER
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (>0.1 INCHES), BUT EVEN
THOSE CHANCES ARE ONLY 20 TO 40%. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH COOLER. A 1037 MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE (30-50%) OF TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
(<37F) TO PRODUCE FROST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH, THOUGH A STEADY NE WIND WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
QUICKLY EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS BY SUNDAY, AND UPPER
RIDGING STARTS REBUILDING INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
SOME INSTABILITY DURING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
VERY LOW (15-25%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT,
FL020 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 45 KTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. AS
SUCH, ADDED A WINDOW OF LLWS AT MKL AND JBR. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
MAY NEED TO EXPAND LLWS SOUTH TO MEM, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE
KEEPS WIND SPEEDS BELOW A MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW AS HIGHER MOISTURE AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 35-45%. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR WETTING RAIN ARE ONLY 20 TO 40% AND ARE CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. LOW HUMIDITY AND MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page