511
FXUS64 KMEG 291746
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- LOW-END FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL LINGER SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AS DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A MUCH WARMER DAY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 60S UNDER A SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REACH JUST ABOVE-NORMAL BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WAA WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, SO EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
BY MONDAY AND CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, WE WILL SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN OUR MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED (< 20% CHANCE) MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND
BE CONFINED TO NORTH / NORTHEAST MS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON OUR AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OUR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BOTH
AFTERNOONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50 - 70% CHANCE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS > 25 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON MONDAY, WITH
EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES ON TUESDAY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE,
ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE POPS INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FALLING IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME (60 - 80%) AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME NOTABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND STALLED BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST A BIT COMPLEX.
CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS AND SOME PERIODS OF
LOWER POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING IS
STILL UNKNOWN. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MIX, THERE IS NOT REALLY A SIGNAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THESE TRENDS AS IT
IS APRIL. IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, LREF GUIDANCE DOES HAVE ABOUT A 20 - 30% CHANCE OF
AMOUNTS OVER 3" BY NEXT MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY 24 HOUR PERIODS WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
OVER 2", INDICATING THAT FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LOW. AS SUCH, THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE
WE CURRENTLY HAVE WIDESPREAD D1-D2 DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND EVEN
SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING D3-D4. THIS WOULD BE A MANAGEABLE
AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA AND WOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME
DROUGHT STRESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR TAFS WITH IMPACTS RELATED TO GUSTY WINDS. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED PERSISTENT, SOUTHERLY WINDS
CAPABLE OF GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF
LLWS FROM 06Z-12Z. MOISTURE WILL RISE OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO BRING AN AREA OF VFR CIGS AT MEM/JBR AFTER 12Z. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MVFR CIG POTENTIAL,
BUT THE ARIDITY OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS HAS PRECLUDED INTRODUCING
ANY MENTION OF MVFR IN THIS ISSUANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MINRH VALUES FALLING NEAR TO BELOW 35% FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
20FT WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35%, WITH
SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page