263
FXUS64 KMEG 301132
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE QUITE WARM CONDITIONS FOR EARLY
SPRING WITH THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ENCOURAGING WAA.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORMAL PROBLEM
AREA OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR MEETING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PRETTY LOW
CHANCE OF MEETING CRITERIA (25 MPH SUSTAINED, 40 MPH GUSTS) ON
MONDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THOSE PROBS JUMP UP ON
TUESDAY WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT AND ITS
RESULTANT WAA IS ALSO ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF OUR ANOMALOUS
WARMTH FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. MEM AIRPORT'S
FORECAST OF 86 DEGREES WOULD BREAK THEIR 85 DEGREE RECORD FOR
TUESDAY.
MOVING INTO MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO ADOPT MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT AT THE SURFACE COINCIDING WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
BECOMING STATIONARY. THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING POPS BACK
UP TO THE 70-80% RANGE. THIS SAME FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL
OUT ON THURSDAY, KEEPING US IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. EARLY ENSEMBLE PROFILES INDICATE A MESSY
CONVECTIVE REGIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THIS COMPLEX
FORECAST OF STALLED FRONTS AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES. NO ONE
PARTICULAR DAY IS JUMPING OUT FOR A SYNOPTIC SEVERE WEATHER
SETUP; THE JOINT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
> 30 KTS (A GOOD "FIRST GUESS" AT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS) ARE
LESS THAN 10% EACH DAY NEXT WEEK PER THE LREF. IT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE AREA. FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL
STANDPOINT, THERE ARE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL > 3" THROUGH SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE TOTALS ARE MORE IN THE
2.5" REALM OVER THE COURSE OF 5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE
OUR DROUGHT WITHOUT POSING MUCH OF A FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE STRATUS
MOST PERSISTENT AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR. A TEMPO IS INCLUDED FOR TUP
TO ACCOUNT FOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS, WITH ALL SITES ANTICIPATED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (>60%) OF LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING AT SITES AFTER 10Z TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY TO 14-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-29 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR TUP WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION
BEGINNING TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MINRH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 35%, WITH SOME GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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