460
FXUS64 KMEG 301749
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1249 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL STARTING ON
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING THE 70S AND SOME CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THINGS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE HUMID AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR DEW POINTS TO
REACH BACK INTO THE MID 60S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OPPRESSIVE, IT WILL BE
SOME OF THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAYS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS
SEASON. SIMILAR TO TODAY, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY (30-35+ MPH) AT TIMES PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. NBM HAS ABOUT A
40-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WHILE THE HREF HAS CLOSER TO A 20-40% CHANCE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND ONLY HAVING LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, OPTED
AGAINST ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS, TRANSITIONING OUR AREA INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING A BIT
ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY, KEEPING HIGHER POP
CHANCES (> 50%) UNTIL THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WE DO SEE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO NORTH MS AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER. HIGHER POP CHANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN TWO
GENERAL WAVES, WITH ONE ROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND ANOTHER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING FOR BOTH WAVES REMAINS IN FLUX. THE
GOOD NEWS WITH BOTH ROUNDS, SO TO SPEAK, IS THAT THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW. CURRENT JOINT PROBABILITIES
FOR CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN < 15%, WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
UNTIL SUNDAY. WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF THE MID-
SOUTH. THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT GENERALLY 1.5-2.5" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. SOME OF THESE AMOUNTS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE LATEST
RUN, SO DO THINK THINGS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END RATHER THAN
THE HIGHER END. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD
BE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY A LOW THREAT FOR FLOODING
MAINLY FOR URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. EVERYTHING WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY NEXT MONDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND. THIS WOULD LIKELY SPELL A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH 8-14 CPC GUIDANCE
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-NORMAL PRESENTATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SCT/BKN CLOUDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS. CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE THE DIURNAL EROSION OF ANY REMAINING
CIGS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTS
ANYWHERE FROM 20 - 30 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET,
BUT WILL RETURN WITH A RESTRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A HIGH (60% - 80%) CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL
MEM/MKL/JBR BY 10Z WITH A 40% - 50% OF IFR. THEREFORE, HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING IFR IN THIS
PERIOD GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
18Z WITH CONTINUED GUSTY, SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 35%. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page