136
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH
AND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL STARTING ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE MIDST OF A WARMING PATTERN
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG TODAY OWING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HREF/NBM SEEM TO HAVE HAD UNREALISTICALLY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF US MEETING OUR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY,
BUT MULTIPLE SITES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL HAVE ALREADY REACHED OUR CRITERIA. NQA/PAH VADS FROM
THIS MORNING DISPLAYED 1-2 KM WINDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL,
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, WE
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS 6 P.M. CDT THIS EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL. MOISTURE IS
ALSO INCREASING AS HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE PULLED NORTH OFF THE
GULF. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ANYWHERE FROM 750 - 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS REGION WITH A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF THUNDER THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
THE BROADER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL ENTER THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFY INTO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY THURSDAY, TRAVELING NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDWEST. MUCH OF THE CORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH, BUT ENOUGH UPPER LIFT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND TROUGH, ORIGINATING FROM THE
POLAR WESTERLIES OFF THE WEST COAST, WILL SWING IN BEHIND
THURSDAY'S TROUGH. SIMILAR TO THE FIRST ONE, MUCH OF THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
DRIVER OF RAINFALL BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN A MATTER OF HOURS AND NO UPPER SUPPORT
FOR MUCH RAIN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, QPF VALUES MAY BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
STEADILY DECREASED IN THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, DOWN TO
1" - 1.75" FROM 2" - 3" JUST A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SO, AT THIS TIME
ANYWHERE FROM 1" - 1.5" SEEMS REASONABLE, BUT THIS FORECAST MAY
CHANGE MORE IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
WITH MONDAY'S MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. INTO
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REGION WILL BE
JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A SPLIT STREAM PATTERN WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW TO OUR NORTH, AND ZONAL, SUBTROPICAL FLOW TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY STAGNATE THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE DRY, COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUP, WHERE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED -TSRA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE MS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
PROB30 MENTIONING FOR TUP AT THIS TIME. AS FOR OUR WINDS, GUSTY
S/SW WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 00Z, BEFORE CALLING BACK TO 10 KTS OR BELOW OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AROUND TO AFTER 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 35%. ELEVATED 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 25 - 30 MPH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1"-1.5"
ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND ARE TO LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY, PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO OUR ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA
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