016
FXUS64 KMEG 032342
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES (AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL COME TO AN END TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A SLOWLY THINNING STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE REGION AS
OF 10 AM WITH ONLY THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR
ARE IN THE 70S AREA WIDE. IF THIS CLOUD DECK PERSISTS MUCH INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND WILL SQUASH THE CHANCES AT MEMPHIS AND TUPELO OF
SETTING ANY NEW TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THE 12Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM
OHX INDICATES DRY AIR AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 500-
300MB ALOFT WITH ZONAL FLOW. THIS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO BEGIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TRAVERSING OVER ARKANSAS. THE 12Z CAM RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING OUR CWA BETWEEN 3-
4 AM TONIGHT.
THE LINE ITSELF WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH A PROJECTED STORM MOTION OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR GENERAL/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE; BUT
BENEFICIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. A
HIGHER SIGNAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING, AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASING NEAR THE FRONT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. PLENTIFUL SBCAPE (BETWEEN 1000-
1500 J/KG) AND DECENT 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35KTS DOES WARRANT
AT LEAST A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 0-1 AND 0-3KM SRH
REMAINS BELOW 150 M^2/S^2, WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A TORNADIC
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO HANG AROUND 7C/KM, AND
THE FZL IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 11,000FT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS,
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HAIL SIZE UP TO QUARTERS. THE DAMAGING WIND
GUST POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME,
AND WILL BE AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING RESULTING IN A SEVERE
WEATHER WINDOW OPENING AS EARLY AS NOON AND CLOSING AROUND 8 PM.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. A DECENT RAIN
SHIELD WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS WILL END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING PRIOR
TO SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE AROUND A 40% OR HIGHER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE I-55 CORRIDOR IS LEAST
FAVORED FOR RECEIVING AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (25-45%). SOUTH OF I-22 IS WHEN THE PROBABILITIES CREEP
BACK UP NEAR 40% AND NEAR 50% IN EXTREME SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY
MS. NONETHELESS, HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE MID-SOUTH
RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SEASONAL TRENDS WILL RETURN WITH
COOL MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAS A KNOWN COOL
BIAS WITH DRY AIRMASSES, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BENIGN
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY
MORNING NEAR THE BOOTHEEL THAT COULD INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS, BUT
GIVEN THE VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR THAT THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
CATCHING ONTO, THOSE TWO RESULTS SEEM UNLIKELY. IF THE SOLUTION
OF THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE, EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE OUR LAST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY ADVECTING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR TO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY MIDWEEK, A DEEPENING LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SENDING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE FIRST WAVE COMING CLOSE TO
THE REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A WEEK AWAY AND
SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT EXPECT A DRY WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WET WEEKEND.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING, WITH SHRA CHANCES INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SHRA IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF SHRA/TSRA, WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR BY MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TURNING NW/N NEAR THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR
WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS BEING EXCEEDED AREAWIDE. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIR MASS NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35% RANGE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
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