350
FXUS64 KMEG 040547
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AS OF 11PM, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A MORE ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG
A COLD FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS LEADING WAVE WILL REACH THE MID-
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION. SBCAPE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
CENTERING OVER NORTHEAST MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND
1000 J/KG). THIS, COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS, WILL
PRODUCE A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS APPROACH THE
MS/AL BORDER. UPSCALE STORM GROWTH WILL BE HINDERED BY LACK-
LUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF SURFACE LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 - 8.5 C/KM AND
MIDLEVEL RATES OF 5.0 C/KM. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL HAVE NO ISSUE
POPPING UP, BUT THE LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW, CSU MACHINE LEARNING
PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY PINGING A MARGINAL WIND THREAT, WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL, IT WILL NOT BE THE DROUGHT
BUSTER RAIN EVENT THE MID-SOUTH IS IN SEARCH OF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE - IN THE 60S AND 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NON-
IMPACTFUL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW THOUGH, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO TELL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CURRENTLY PREVAILS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST WILL INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, EVENTUALLY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TSRA TO JBR AROUND BETWEEN 08Z - 12Z, ARRIVING
AT MEM, MKL, AND TUP SEQUENTIALLY THROUGH TODAY. MVFR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL BOTH FROM VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM RAIN AND CIGS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
AT EACH TERMINAL WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT WITH TIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LASTLY, PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MINRH AROUND
30 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HAMPER CONCERNS BY
WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB
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