817
FXUS64 KMEG 041133 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AS OF 11PM, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A MORE ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG
A COLD FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS LEADING WAVE WILL REACH THE MID-
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION. SBCAPE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
CENTERING OVER NORTHEAST MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND
1000 J/KG). THIS, COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS, WILL
PRODUCE A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS APPROACH THE
MS/AL BORDER. UPSCALE STORM GROWTH WILL BE HINDERED BY LACK-
LUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF SURFACE LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 - 8.5 C/KM AND
MIDLEVEL RATES OF 5.0 C/KM. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL HAVE NO ISSUE
POPPING UP, BUT THE LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS OF NOW, CSU MACHINE LEARNING
PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY PINGING A MARGINAL WIND THREAT, WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL, IT WILL NOT BE THE DROUGHT
BUSTER RAIN EVENT THE MID-SOUTH IS IN SEARCH OF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE - IN THE 60S AND 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NON-
IMPACTFUL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW THOUGH, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO TELL POTENTIAL IMPACTS. STAY TUNED.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
EXPECT SHRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE MORNING.
TSRA COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR DECREASED IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS, BUT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK NEAR THE MS
RIVER TOWARD MIDMORNING. THAT SAID, 00Z HREF TS PROBABILITIES AND
AND 09Z HRRR LIGHTNING DENSITY AREN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH REGARDING A TRANSITION TO VFR TONIGHT, IN A
DEEPLY-MIXED AND DRY POLAR AIRMASS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MINRH AROUND
30 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HAMPER CONCERNS BY
WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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