405
FXUS64 KMEG 041711
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A MESSY CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE VELOCITY FIELDS OF KNQA, WHICH INDICATES THE
COOLER AIR IS OUTRUNNING THE CONVECTION AND THUS SQUASHING
UPSCALE GROWTH. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SWATH OF ABOUT
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OUR MAIN FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART, THE AIRMASS OVER EAST ARKANSAS AND
WEST TENNESSEE HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER WITH ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STEADY RAIN THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES ARE ALSO NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE (MAYBE 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR) DUE TO THE
MODEST PWATS AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MORE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY OVER NORTH MS, WOULD EXPECT MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TONIGHT, DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER DOMINANT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE OUR COLDEST OF THE
PERIOD UNDER RESIDUAL CAA AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS; FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. THERE IS A VERY LOW (< 10%) CHANCE OF FROST FOR
AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER ON MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WARMER WITH EACH RUN SO THAT CHANCE
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY NEXT WEEK GETS WARMER
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH.
MOVING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS
TO TRANSITION TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF POPS ABOVE 20% ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MEM, MKL, AND TUP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF IFR CEILINGS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
FILTERS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WETTING RAINS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH MINRHS AROUND 30 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
MITIGATE CONCERNS BY WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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