709
FXUS64 KMEG 050537
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1237 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CROSS THE MID-SOUTH
AT THIS HOUR WITH A LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST, DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN FOR THE
EASTER HOLIDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE
AT THE VERY LATEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.
ONCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING ENHANCING RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT FROST ACROSS NORTHWEST TN,
WITH THE LREF ONLY DISPLAYING A 15% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES LESS
THAN 36F. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM FOR MONDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY IN
TERMS OF DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30%.
WHILE SOME AREAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, AND WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO GUSTY, PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN BURNING WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND HEAD TO ANY LOCAL BURN BANS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH COOL MORNINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATING FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. WAA WILL RETURN AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CREEP BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES BEING 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE WITH THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM GUIDANCE STILL HAS MANY
DISCREPANCIES ON WEEKEND RAINFALL CHANCES, SO FOR NOW, BE SURE TO
ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY WEATHER.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH MEM/JBR ON THE BACK SIDE AND MKL/TUP STILL AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONGSIDE -SHRA AT TUP. THESE CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 09Z WITH
RAIN ENDING BY THIS TIME AT TUP. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND ARE FORECAST TO REACH UPWARDS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY 00Z MONDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MINRHS AROUND
30 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS RECEIVED
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND MAY PROHIBIT HIGHER CONCERNS UNTIL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB
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