519
FXUS64 KMEG 051721
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE
WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SETTLING IN NICELY, LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTH
WINDS. RESIDUAL CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE LOW 70S. TOMORROW (MONDAY) MORNING LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
40 DEGREES. WILL NOTE THAT THE FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
DECREASE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER MONDAY MORNING;
MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH RUN. THE CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 37 DEGREES (A GOOD PROXY FOR THE
FIRST INKLING OF FROST POTENTIAL) IS VERY LOW AT LESS THAN 10%.
EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY NEXT WEEK GETS WARMER WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
POPS ABOVE 15% ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. NEITHER OF THESE TWO DAYS HAVE MUCH OF
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATIONAL SHEAR OR INSTABILITY. PER
THE LREF, WE'LL MOST LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE AND
ABOUT 25 KTS OF BULK SHEAR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS DISPLACED PRETTY FAR OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO NNE WINDS BETWEEN 6-11 KTS ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SEND MINRHS AROUND 30%
THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. IF THERE WERE A DAY FOR
MINRHS TO DROP TO 25% OR LOWER, IT WOULD BE MONDAY; DEWPOINTS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY OVERFORECASTED A FEW DAYS AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES IN. SOME AREAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN BY LATE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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