179
FXUS64 KMEG 061129 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A GENERALLY COOL AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT, WITH
MOST OF THE AREA DIPPING TO THE LOW 40S WITH A FEW RURAL
LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES NEAR SUNRISE. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW, DEW POINTS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOW FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH MINRH VALUES
FALLING TO THE 25-35% RANGE. THIS COULD INTRODUCE SOME BORDERLINE
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS UNTIL MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY MIDWEEK, SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY, LIKELY FINISHING
OUT THE WEEK WELL ABOVE-NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN
ADDITION, THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL MATERIALIZE AS GENERALLY ISOLATED
(10-20%) RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOW GIVEN THE LITTLE FORCING THAT WILL BE
AROUND. THE FIRST HINTS OF BREAKING OUT OF THIS PATTERN LIKELY
WOULD NOT COME UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND, BUT EVEN THEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO PUSH THE TIMING FURTHER AND FURTHER OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A DRY POLAR AIRMASS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING VFR TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WINDS
WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH SOME
BORDERLINE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE 30-35% THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE VALUES BELOW 30%
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, 20FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN THE NEXT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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