802
FXUS64 KMEG 062309
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE 70S EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE 80S BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MORNING'S SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. A WEAK AND DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S NORTH OF I-40 FOR TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE 40S.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (>80% CHANCE) FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS THE MID-SOUTH IN A DRY PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND A LACK OF ADEQUATE RAINFALL PRESENT A MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT DURING THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BY LATE WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE
WEEKEND OVER ARKANSAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS
(15-30% CHANCE) CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
PICKING BACK UP TO BETWEEN 8 TO 10 KTS AROUND 14Z AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH SOME
MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO
35 PERCENT WITH THE LOWER VALUES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NE AR AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
WHEN THE NEXT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA
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