290
FXUS64 KMEG 071744
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE 70S EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE 80S BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE
TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI BACK THROUGH ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH 10 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT
AFTERNOON TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S NORTH OF I-40, AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 PERCENT.
A HIGH CONFIDENCE AND DRY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (50-70%) OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING 85 DEGREES OR GREATER, ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AT
CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AROUND 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. MARGINAL FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER, 20FT
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH VALUES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 30 TO 45 PERCENT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CAD
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