456
FXUS64 KMEG 082333
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- THE PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RISE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REACH
THE MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP BACK INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED STARTING NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND A
MORE OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 60F ACROSS
THE DELTA ON MONDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL LIKELY HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. EXPECT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY TUESDAY THERE IS A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
MAINLY ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE THE LREF HAS JOINT PROBABILITIES
OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SBCAPES GREATER 500 J/KG AND 0-500MB BULK
SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS RISK IS LOW
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER RIDGING MAY HOLD ON LONGER
THAN EXPECTED AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK LOOK RATHER WEAK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY
LIFT THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO
AT OR BELOW 7 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE RETURNING TO
8 TO 9 KTS BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY NOT REMAIN
ABOVE 40 PERCENT UNTIL NEXT WEEK, MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WHILE
20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST DUE TO THE
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING DROUGHT IMPACTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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