036
FXUS64 KMEG 090552
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1252 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RISING.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A PEACEFUL OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BENIGN WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S,
FLIRTING WITH RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT DRY AIR
WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT HUMIDITY.
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES UNSETTLED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
EAST OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A POTENT TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA. PERSISTENT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40 DRY. MEANWHILE, FOR AREAS NORTH, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE (25-40%) LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY, AIDED BY A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES INCREASING
MOISTURE. COME TUESDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT TROUGHING OVER
CALIFORNIA PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A COLOCATED
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT. LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF >500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE AND >30KTS ARE AROUND 25-30%, MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE DELTA REGION. MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH, AND KEEP ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AT THE MINIMUM, WEATHER WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ALONG WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST WILL PREVAIL SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5 - 10 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
ABOVE 15 KNOTS AT MEM/JBR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY 00Z FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30% EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30-
40% CHANCE FOR MINRH TO FALL BELOW 30% BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 10MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO PERSISTENT
DRY WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER
WILL EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER DANGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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