435
FXUS64 KMEG 092335
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RISING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE GULF CLOSED AND HUMIDITY LEVELS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT LOSES UPPER
SUPPORT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CREEP INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WHERE THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF
A THUNDERSTORM. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY WITH MID 80S EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SET UP
SOUTHWEST FLOWS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITIES, INCREASING
INSTABILITY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY AREAS WEST OF I-
55 AND NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A DECENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SERVES TO REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH TEMPORARILY, WHICH WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION. ALSO, IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD TEMPS LIKELY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE JOINT PROBABILITIES OF GREATER
THAN 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND GREATER THAN 30 KTS OF 0-500 MB BULK
WIND SHEAR CLIMB TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MATCHES THE CURRENT 15% SEVERE RISK ON THE DAY
7 OUTLOOK FAIRLY WELL, AND ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THIS FAR OUT, IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE SEVERE RISK
AREA OR NAIL DOWN THE TIMING, BUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME -SHRA MAY
APPROACH JBR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROB30 INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO
8 TO 10 KTS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE
TO PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL EXIST OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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