173
FXUS64 KMEG 100341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1041 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON TAP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PREDOMINANTLY CALM WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COASTS, WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THIS WILL KEEP MILD HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH, JUST
NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY STATELINE. DUE TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION HERE IN
THE MID-SOUTH, HOWEVER, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WHERE CHANCES ARE GENERALLY <25%. BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING, THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH, AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THOUGH CHILLY
MORNINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION AND
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, GREATLY INFLUENCED
BY A CLOSED LOW PUSHING OVER CALIFORNIA, BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-45%) WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-
40. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PATTERN SHIFT, HUMIDITIES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR EARLY WEEK. WE WILL ALSO BEGIN FLIRTING
WITH POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BYTUESDAY AS GUSTY WINDS
AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW USHER IN WARMER AIR. ENSEMBLES ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE BEING CUT OFF FOR TUESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BRIEFLY RETREATS
CLOSER TO THE MID-SOUTH.
COME EARLY WEDNESDAY, AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW MATERIALIZES OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH HELP FROM INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
DIGGING INTO THE PARAMETER SPACE, LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES
INDICATE AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SBCAPE >500 J/KG AND >30KTS
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH FORECAST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5",
NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES ARE REALLY STRUGGLING ON EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
AND SEVERE PARAMETERS LINING UP THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW, WE KNOW
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE IN
COMPARISON TO THIS WEEK.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME -SHRA MAY
APPROACH JBR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PROB30 INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO
8 TO 10 KTS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30%. 20-FT WINDS WILL
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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