953
FXUS64 KMEG 101652
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 80S BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF CLOSED OFF WITH A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE MID-SOUTH. A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SCRAPE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MID-
SOUTH, ALONG THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDERS, LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW (< 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY WITH MID 80S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT START TO PICK UP ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA WHERE
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE ON THE
UPTICK BY SUNDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WIND, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING HUMIDITY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(30 TO 40 PERCENT) MAINLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-40 ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL LIFT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL HELP REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AND
PUSH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THE
MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL IN THE
UPPER 80S. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
SYSTEM MAY PUSH INTO THE MID-SOUTH TOWARD THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY FALL APART. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE WHICH MEANS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGHER CHANCES WILL TEND TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST TN WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
AND LIKELY DRIER.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL LOOKING AT THIS POINT
WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THE LREF HAS 30 TO
40 PERCENT JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG
AND 0-500MB BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 30 KTS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED
TOTALS RANGING FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. THERE IS ONLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH SHORT TO
MEDIUM TERM RELIEF FOR THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS OR SO. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LARGELY SUB 10 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD TRICKLE INTO JBR
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL IN
TAF.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY BELOW
10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY
FUELS, LOW TO MID 80 TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
<= 30 PERCENT, AND 20-FOOT WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES WET AND UNSETTLED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
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