277
FXUS64 KMEG 251806
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE SUNDAY.
- CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS FEATURED NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DIURNAL CUMULUS PREVALENT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH NOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
MOSTLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT.
SHORT-TERM CAMS INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (< 20%) OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY WITH A CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT IN WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
2000-3000 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A ROBUST PARAMETER SPACE,
INCLUDING 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS, STRONG INSTABILITY,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2, AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE
MOST LIKELY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY SUPERCELLS DURING
THIS EVENT ONCE THE CAPPING INVERSION BREAKS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO
HIGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES AS THE
THREATS.
A SECONDARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
30 KTS INDICATE A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. AN EARLY
LOOK AT THE PARAMETER SPACE FAVORS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE THREATS.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS SHOW DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF
COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, BEHIND A FRONT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MEM/MKL/TUP
OVERNIGHT ALONG SATURATED SOILS, A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, AND
LIGHT WINDS. FOG WILL LIFT AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5-8 KTS. LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PASS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, TAF SITES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
RECENT RAINFALL AND UPCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK 20 FT
WINDS, FIRE DANGERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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