668
FXUS64 KMEG 271646
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK TO ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND STRONG TORNADOES COVERS THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
AND LARGE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
- WEATHER WILL DAMPEN AND DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A RELATIVELY CALM AND WARM START TO OUR DAY HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH
SO FAR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THIS
"CALM" WILL SOON CHANGE AS THE LATEST 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING THE MID-SOUTH AND
SEVERAL PRETTY STOUT SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FIXATED OVER KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA WITH A PRETTY STOUT SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OVER IOWA AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CO-
LOCATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, A LINE CONVECTION
IS MOVING OVER ST. LOUIS MISSOURI'S AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOOKING
AT OUR PARAMETER SPACE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE UPWARDS OF
2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 7.5+ C/KM, AND STP AROUND 2-3 FOR THE AFTERNOON TO
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE PRETTY DECENT
CURVATURE TO THEM INDICATIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG, UP TO EF-
3 TORNADOES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS, WE
WILL HAVE A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS (70+ MPH) AND
LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCH DIAMETER).
NOTE: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
BLOWING DUST IN THESE AREAS AHEAD OF STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
DUE TO DRY SOILS FROM A RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL.
A LARGE QUESTION REMAINS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN LITTLE ROCK'S AREA THUS FAR. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER AND OVER OUR AREA, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF CAMS INDICATE
SUPERCELLS BEGINNING TO FORM AS EARLY AS 1PM OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. IF THESE SUPERCELLS DO FORM, THEY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES,
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY DOES STILL EXIST,
HOWEVER, REGARDING AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS AS CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORMS.
BOTTOM LINE, BE PREPARED FOR THIS EVOLUTION AS 700MB WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY AROUND 3PM, INDICATIVE OF A RAPIDLY
INCREASING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT.
MOVING PAST SUNSET, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO OUR AREA. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS HAVE AN EVEN BETTER CURVATURE WITH STP VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 5 AND 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO
AROUND 50 KTS. THE QUESTION WITH EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOUR'S SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS THE OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SUPERCELLS EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A SQUALL
LINE OR A MESSY CLUSTER OVER SUPERCELLS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BORDERS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO SEE UP TO EF-3 TORNADOES AS SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA IN A LEVEL 2 HATCHED. REASON BEING, THIS IS
THE AREA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE THE MOST ROBUST AND
WHERE A POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SET UP OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO FINALLY EXIT THE MID-SOUTH BY AROUND 4/5AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER BY MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
PRETTY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 2500+ J/KG OF SBCAPE, AROUND
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM,
AND SHIP VALUES AROUND 1.3, IN ACCORDANCE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO HAVE LESS CURVATURE TO THEM,
INDICATING LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW. THE OVERALL STORM
STRUCTURE LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW EMBEDDED DISCREET CELLS ALSO LOOK TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW. THESE DISCREET CELLS WILL HAVE
MORE OF A HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THEM WHERE THE BOWING
SEGMENTS WILL HAVE MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
AROUND 2-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. LUCKILY, WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH OF A FLOODING THREAT
DUE TO A RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, THE COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH, BRINGING MUCH CALMER AND
COOLER WEATHER. A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT,
THOUGH NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT IN FRONT
THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
PRETTY STABLE. BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM, WE'RE LOOKING COOL AND
DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE REGION.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 748 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT JBR AND MEM THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID DAY.
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA CHANCES DURING THE DAY REMAIN LOW. THE
MAJORITY OF HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY QUIET, THOUGH MORE
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS (HRRR) HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WE FOCUSED THE TSRA TIMING DURING THE
PERIOD THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WE KEPT PROB30S TO HIGHLIGHT A LARGER WINDOW IN WHICH TSRAS COULD
OCCUR. WE EXPECT TO NARROW THE TIMING A BIT MORE DURING THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT BOTH JBR
AND MEM WITH UP TO 25 KTS AT MKL AND TUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
UPCOMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK 20 FT WINDS, FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...SJM
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