397
FXUS64 KMEG 280422
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND STRONG TORNADOES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
AND LARGE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BUSY OVERNIGHT HOUR IS PROGRESSING WITH A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TN.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A FAVORABLE, FAIRLY
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA FROM THE REGION
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2,000 TO 3,000 J/KG
RANGE WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OVER 400 M2/S2. WHILE STORMS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE HAVE REMAINED TAME OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES, THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THE FORCING CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
ALL STORM MODES WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN DOES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN AR
AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS STATELINE, BUT STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE TN/MS LINE LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF
OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAYTIME, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE MID-SOUTH. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ROUND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH IS IN EITHER AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) OR
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST YET ANOTHER ROBUST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES >2,500 J/KG, AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 7 TO 8. TIMING WITH THIS WOULD BE GENERALLY AFTER 2
PM. ALL STORM MODES ARE ON THE TABLE ONCE AGAIN, BUT THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
A FLOODING THREAT BY THE EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES WILL BE OVER
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, WITH SOME CAMS SHOWING
STORMS LINGERING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IF ANY OF THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER AN AREA, THIS WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE FLOODING CONCERN PRETTY RAPIDLY. WHILE
WE HAVE BEEN IN A DROUGHT, GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED,
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT LINGERS COULD QUICKLY BECOME AN ISSUE
ESPECIALLY IN METROPOLITAN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LIKELY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARILY ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER-LEVELS
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A COOLER AND INCREASINGLY DRY
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BRING SHOWERS (~20% CHANCE) TO OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS LOW AND MOST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER TO THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED. AS FAR AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES GO, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BY WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 70S BEFORE DIPPING INTO THE 60S
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 6 TO
10 DAY CPC GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE MID-SOUTH IN A BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SO
OVERALL THE COOLER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A MID-
LEVEL CAP. THIS CAP IS FINALLY ERODING, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED/DISCRETE, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND, AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES, WINDING DOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z. THE NBM IS EVEN
INDICATING ~25% CHANCE OF IFR, BUT THE HREF IS MUCH LOWER AT ~10%
(MORE LIKELY). ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THE MKL AND JBR ASOS CONTINUE TO REPORT -RA DESPITE NO RADAR
ECHOES IN THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SPIDER WEBS CAUSING
ERRONEOUS READINGS AT THESE SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINRH
VALUES BELOW 40% WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...MJ
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