700
FXUS64 KMEG 292329
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INTO TONIGHT.
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-40.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEW
ENGLAND BACK THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE, NORTH MISSISSIPPI, AND
INTO CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS. GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH SOME CLEARING
BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. 12 PM TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TO THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
ADDITIONAL LATE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ARKLATEX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
INTO TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE, A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) OF SHOWERS RETURNING
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE REGION, CONSOLIDATING WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AIR ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A FEW -SHRAS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS TRIGGERING LOW
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT MEM AND TUP THIS
EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER (30%) AT MEM FOR -SHRAS ON STATION BUT IN CLOSE
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO CARRY A VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A
40 TO 50% CHANCE FOR -SHRAS ON STATION AT TUP WITH A TEMPO
ACCOUNTING FOR THIS ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH 20FT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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