649
FXUS64 KMEG 302311
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTH OF I-40.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- A WARM AND WET PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES A REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COUPLE OF SUBTLE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES, ONE OVER TEXAS AND A SECOND ONE OVER MISSISSIPPI ARE
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LATE MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE-
TENTH UP TO PERHAPS ONE-HALF INCH.
LONG TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FEATURE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA. DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER
80S BY MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LATEST LREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES AND WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
HIGH CIRRUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO SLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND
10KTS AROUND 15Z TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE
NAMNEST FAVORS LIGHT SHRA AT KTUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT REMAINS
AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE CAMS. NO INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT INTO FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 35 TO
40 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND WITH 20FT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. SATURDAY
PRESENTS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RH VALUES TO DROP
NEAR 35%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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