772
FXUS64 KMEG 151141 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
- NEXT WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE EASTERN
US TODAY, PLACING THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TODAY
WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
CONUS TOMORROW, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO FUNNEL BACK INTO
THE MID-SOUTH. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
POTENTIALLY REACHING 90F. BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO ENCOURAGE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS LOW (<20%). HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERNS WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SLIGHT MODEL
DISCREPANCY REGARDING TIMING OF RAINFALL IN THE MID-SOUTH, BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE
TO POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE TRICKY TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST NBM PLACES A 10 DEGREE
SPREAD AMONG THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IMPACT THE AREA. FOR NOW, LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR OVERLAPPING SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS REMAIN
LESS THAN 15% DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, AS THE MIDSOUTH
REMAINS IN A WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AT JBR AND MEM, WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. THESE GUSTS MAY
SUBSIDE AT MEM FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LIMITED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO 20 FT
WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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