465
FXUS64 KMEG 152318
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ON SATURDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS LATE MONDAY, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD 1020MB HIGH OVER
APPALACHIA WITH A 1002MB LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND A MATURE
985MB LOW OVER ONTARIO, CANADA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
FROM THE LOW IN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND DOWN TO NEW
ORLEANS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PARENT
LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALOFT, BROAD
SPLIT OR ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE A SHORTWAVE IS NOTED. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE, SEVERAL SMALL PERTURBATIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MODIFY OUR AIR
MASS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT AND
RESULT IN MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S. AS
UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING, NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN DRY (<5 POPS). HOWEVER, BOTH LREF AND HREF GUIDANCE
RESOLVES DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION,
INCREASING INSTABILITY, AND DEEPENING LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED TO STRAY POPS (~15%) FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40, WHERE THESE WEAK WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND HOT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COLORADO LOW WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER ON MONDAY AS IT TAKES
ON A POSITIVE TILT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION, AND MANY LOCATIONS APPROACHING THEIR FIRST 90F OF THE
YEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LREF GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THIS
FRONT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, IN CONTRAST TO THE CONSISTENT
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH RESOLVING A PHASING SOUTHERN JET STREAM WAVE MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS SBCAPE SWELLS TO 2000 J/KG AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE WEAK BULK
SHEAR, GENERALLY AROUND 20 KNOTS. NONETHELESS, THERE REMAINS AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION AS WE REMAIN LOCKED INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY, S/SW WINDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR MEM AND JBR, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK
BACK UP AT MKL AROUND 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
WE MOVE INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING
RAINFALL RETURNS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA
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