322
FXUS64 KMEG 161117 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90°F IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS LATE MONDAY, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE, EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL IMPACT
THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
ENCOURAGE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
40 THROUGH MIDMORNING. HOWEVER, OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS LOW
(<15%) AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS RESUME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A 588 DAM RIDGE CENTERS OFF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REACHING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TEMPERATURES IMPACT THE MID-
SOUTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS MORE SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY THAN THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE A TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY, PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES FOR THE MID-SOUTH REMAIN LOW NEXT WEEK (AROUND
15%), UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRECISE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT. ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SOUTH, IT WILL STALL ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT STALLS. GIVEN POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. INSTEAD, EXPECT SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. THE LATEST LREF PLACES
A 40% CHANCE OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE BENEFICIAL, THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO CURB THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE MID-SOUTH. BY FRIDAY, THE COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION.
FORECAST DISCREPANCIES EMERGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY WINDS EMERGE AFTER FRIDAY'S
FROPA. THE GEFS IS THE DRIER SOLUTION, FAVORING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THAT STICKS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ENS, ON THE OTHER
HAND, IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RETURN IN THE MID-SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THROUGH LATE MORNING,
SOME HIGH-BASED -SHRA MAY RESULT IN A FEW RAIN DROPS ON THE
GROUND AT JBR, MEM AND MKL. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VIS ARE EXPECTED.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS.
GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT JBR AND MEM, LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A HUMID AIRMASS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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