589
FXUS64 KMEG 162305
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90°F IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS LATE MONDAY, BRINGING LOW (20-30%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A SUBTLE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THUS FAR. OTHERWISE,
REGIONAL METAR OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING THE GROUND WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR STILL PRESENT IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE (MAINLY LESS THAN
15%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NORTH
OF I-40 INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH
REMAINING DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST AIR ADVECTS UP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EJECTING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH LEAVING THE AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, PULSE TYPE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, BEST CHANCES FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY PEAK HEATING WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. CONSEQUENTLY, ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THUS REMAINS LIMITED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. GUSTY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 8 KTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT JBR, MEM, AND MKL. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT MEM AND MKL AND 25 KTS AT JBR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A HUMID AIRMASS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA
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