590
FXUS64 KMEG 170344
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90°F IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS LATE MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-
SOUTH REMAINS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH DAILY HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE NOT
FORECAST TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH, THIS FEATURE WILL
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPT THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THIS OCCURS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
GIVEN POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF
THE BEST SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.
INSTEAD, SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE MID-SOUTH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS, THE LREF CONTINUES TO PLACE A 50 - 60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AREAWIDE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. GUSTY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 8 KTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT JBR, MEM, AND MKL. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT MEM AND MKL AND 25 KTS AT JBR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA
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