503
FXUS64 KMEG 170446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS LATE MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-
SOUTH REMAINS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH DAILY HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SYNOPTIC PATTERNS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE NOT
FORECAST TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH, THIS FEATURE WILL
EFFECTIVELY DISRUPT THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THIS OCCURS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
GIVEN POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF
THE BEST SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.
INSTEAD, SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE MID-SOUTH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS, THE LREF CONTINUES TO PLACE A 50 - 60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AREAWIDE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED, AT OR ABOVE 9 KTS, FOR THESE TERMINALS AGAIN TOMORROW
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA
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